Coronavirus pandemic update and analysis :
The first outbreak of COVID-19, which first occurred in China and became a global disaster that spread throughout the world, is causing enormous danger to African countries without proper and effective health infrastructure. The first outbreak of Algeria in Africa spread to almost all continents in a short time.
As a result of limited information disclosure and the lack of some political tools, it is quite difficult to determine the extent of the effects of the pandemic on the continent. Although the outbreak in Africa cannot be predicted at this time But it can be said that some of its effects can be observed at a geopolitical level.
The coronary epidemic has made it clear that local and regional problems are rapidly expanding around the world, while insufficient cooperation in resolving the problems. Excessive energy use in some regions of the world can cause natural disasters in other regions while there is not enough attention to disease in Africa. But the pandemic could cause fear in the United States, which is quite similar to the situation when terrorist movements that support them are harmed. But able to attack those who support.
When people with different identities, religions, or ideas are oppressed and excluded, this may become a threat to world peace. In this context, a global governing body model that realizes that such a problem can be resolved through humanity has not yet been developed.
Due to the weakness in this area, the country is still on its own in the epidemic of coronary viruses. Viruses, allies become a question, the country further expands their scope and the position of those who assume the leadership role of each crisis. Will be modified For example, while the United States is not able to effectively fight the epidemic, China has claimed that a new pandemic has given rise to a new global influence by offering help to health facilities and devices in Europe, Africa and even the United States through its founder Jack Ma. The owner of the company by the name of Alibaba.
South Africa’s ruthlessly efficient fight against coronavirus https://t.co/s4RgWPP9g2
— BBC News Africa (@BBCAfrica) April 2, 2020
The challenges faced by leading international policymakers in dealing with this pandemic have put political, political, economic and social barriers in front of global governance, which requires cooperation – look at Can see each day Therefore, these obstacles will create security vulnerabilities in the coming months and global uncontrollability will become clear.
Effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on Africa
Although the number of patients in Africa is currently low. But now is a serious threat to the continent The epidemic also spread to Africa, which is confirmed by the positive results of viral testing, especially government officials, civil servants, people from the business of the arts and sports – those connected to the outside world. It is the first case in the continent that will be recorded by detecting people infected in Algeria. From then, the epidemic began to have a rapid effect in Kenya and other countries, especially Egypt, South Africa and Morocco, respectively.
For example, the number of cases of the continent is 450 on March 17, and this number has increased to 5,400. Therefore, even though there are currently eight countries without confirmation But considering the permeability of the border But these numbers are predicted to increase in the next few days.
Out of 54 African countries, 33 countries are among the least developed. In addition, the annual report 2016 from the RAND Corporation in the country that is most vulnerable to the infectious disease outbreak in the world says 22 out of 25 countries are on this continent.
Therefore, almost every African country is disadvantaged in many areas, from basic hygiene needs to health infrastructure. Other important and astounding factors are the presence of people living in unfavorable conditions in large cities, as well as communities of people displaced in African-Sahara desert countries forced to evacuate to Other countries and live in a sterile environment If the virus is spreading to these areas where these people in the camp are struggling for life, things that both the host country and the international community can do may require severe restrictions and measures.
Despite all this concern But Africa still has an advantage over an outbreak of scorching countries in Asia, Europe and America. The first is the continent’s latest experience with viruses such as Ebola, AIDS, malaria and Lassa fever. The experience provides important infrastructure support for dealing with the outbreak. But inadequate health infrastructure and problems with access to clean water on many continents are a cause of concern.
On the other hand, the fact that COVID-19 spreads to countries in Africa slower than other regions around the world can be considered an advantage in the fight against epidemics.
The rate of spread and the degree of impact of the outbreak was recognized early and measures such as international flight stops, widespread disinfection work, school suspension, limited curfew operations, but the international community needs to take action. Urgency to overcome chronic problems that will hinder the fight against pandemics in African countries The struggle must move from the micro level to the macro level, that is, it must be a global level.
The geopolitical impact of the global outbreak in Africa
The most negative impact of the pandemic – which has had a serious impact on the international economy and politics – in African countries in these areas will be the result of the fact that oil prices have dropped to the lowest level during Two decades ago, there were oil exporting countries such as Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, whose income depends on oil.
Main oil consumers will feel the crisis in the short term. The disagreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia on production cuts and Riyadh’s dramatic increase in production has led to a sharp drop in oil prices. Along with the rapidly declining demand for oil in China, the epidemic has made the oil exporting countries in Africa associated with this country their main source of income.
The fact that oil prices remain at this level is not sustainable, considering the producers that depend on oil exports and natural gas producers in the United States that have reached unsustainable levels. But it is clear that even if the effects of the outbreak are declining, the increased demand will not increase the price of oil too much. Therefore, African countries with more than 80% of their oil export share, on average, can expect to face difficult and uncertain economic times.
Nigeria’s elite are trapped by coronavirus and now exposed to the squalid hospitals they could previously avoid https://t.co/nW78yjM2i6
— Bloomberg Africa (@BBGAfrica) April 2, 2020
The damage that the global pandemic to the African economy in the medium term may be more serious than the health effects. In the current situation, the negative trends in the stock market, commodity prices, the value of national currencies and interest rates, as well as blocking / reducing international circulation are the main factors causing the global economic crisis.
The Western government will try to overcome the crisis with a large-scale assistance program for sectors affected by the outbreak. But it is impossible for African countries that do not have the same resources to put these measures in place. Still, some African countries, especially those in the booming agriculture sector, tend to overcome the crisis.
Another negative development, outbreaks, will give rise to the possibility that “Failure Status” in the conflict can “test” as seen in the examples of Libya and Mali. The number of countries open for intervention may increase. Many countries may be in the hands of poverty and famine. Their boundaries and identities may become harsh differences without social solidarity and weaknesses in state power. Because they have hydrocarbon resources and minerals rich in power, regional / global levels may want to intervene in these countries.
In summary, the spread of the epidemic will eventually stop and the international system will find a balance. But most of the damage is permanent, especially for African countries. The current crisis affecting the local, regional and global economy will present the final opportunity. But using these opportunities needs to reach the capital Considering that capital can be obtained by outsourcing in most African countries, the situation does not seem satisfactory at all.
Therefore, initiatives undertaken by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and other international institutions for the continent are important in this process.
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REF : aa.com